Why is everyone talking about rare earths? The issue that entered Brazilian politics

Just a few years ago, rare earths were a topic for geologists and mining engineers. In 2026, they became an issue in Brazil’s presidential campaign, in negotiations with the United States and in a law passed by Congress. With the election decided yesterday, it is worth understanding how this technical subject reached the center of Brazilian politics and what changes from here on.

What happened

The issue gained momentum throughout 2026, with a series of events:

• January: according to the British newspaper Financial Times, Brazil and the United States began to consider a possible cooperation agreement on rare earths. The talks were at an early stage.
• April: the American company USA Rare Earth announced the purchase of Serra Verde, owner of the Pela Ema mine in Minaçu, in the Brazilian state of Goiás (GO), the only commercial rare earth mining operation in Brazil. The deal was valued at about US$ 2.8 billion, paid with US$ 300 million in cash and the rest in shares. The transaction includes a contract, announced as running for 15 years, for the purchase of all the neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium from the mine’s first phase by a company capitalized by US government agencies and private investors, according to Agência Pública and documents the company filed with the SEC, the US capital markets regulator.
• July: CNN Brasil revealed that a draft memorandum sent by the US State Department referred to Brazil as “country X” and as “Ecuador,” and that the negotiations had not moved forward in any significant way.
• September: USA Rare Earth reported that it had completed the purchase of Serra Verde on September 3. That same month, Law 15,506/2026 was signed, creating Brazil’s National Policy on Critical and Strategic Minerals, with incentives for these minerals to be processed in the country. We explain the law in Law 15,506/2026: what changes with Brazil’s new critical minerals policy.
• October: rare earths were a campaign issue. In the runoff, held on October 25, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT, the Workers’ Party) was reelected with 51.79% of the valid votes, against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL, the Liberal Party), according to data from the TSE, Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, released by the TRE-SP, the São Paulo Regional Electoral Court.

Why it matters

Three factors explain why the subject left the labs and ended up on the campaign trail:

1. China dominates the sector. Based on estimates by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), China produced about 270,000 of the 390,000 metric tons of rare earths mined worldwide in 2025. In 2025, the country also tightened controls on exports of several of these elements.
2. The United States and other countries are looking for alternatives. Rare earths are used in magnets for electric cars, wind turbines and defense equipment. According to Agência Pública, the head of USA Rare Earth said the purchase of Serra Verde would give the US access to inputs for the defense industry.
3. Brazil has the world’s second-largest reserves, about 11 million metric tons, according to the USGS, but produces very little. In other words: the country has what the world is looking for, but has not yet decided how to develop that potential.

To understand the technical basis of this story, read Rare earths: what they are, what they are used for and why Brazil matters.

The sides of the debate

During the campaign, the proposals split, in simplified terms, between two paths.

Closer ties with the United States. Flávio Bolsonaro said, at an event for conservative politicians in the United States, that Brazil would be “the solution for the United States to break its dependence on China for critical minerals,” according to IstoÉ and eixos. The governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), who presented himself as a pre-candidate (a prospective candidate before official registration), signed a cooperation agreement with the US for mapping and exploration of these minerals in his state and argued that Brazil should stop being an “exporter of raw materials.”

Sovereignty and processing in Brazil. Lula said his government will not “allow them to once again use the critical minerals that belong to the Brazilian people,” according to eixos, which also reported that the government ruled out joining a US-led minerals alliance. The idea of a state-owned company for the sector, nicknamed Terrabrás, was discussed and has the support of left-wing lawmakers and part of the scientific community, but, according to IstoÉ, the government has officially been ruling it out.

Both camps agree on one point: Brazil should not limit itself to exporting raw ore. The disagreement is over who to partner with and how much control the state should have.

Pros and cons of the paths under discussion

Attracting foreign capital and partnerships with the US

• For: mining projects require a lot of money and years of investment. Foreign partners bring capital, technology and a guaranteed market for the output.
• Against: contracts that commit all the output of the most valuable elements to a single buyer for many years may limit the country’s ability to sell to other markets or to use these minerals in its own industry. A survey by Repórter Brasil shows that 4 in every 10 mineral exploration applications for rare earths in Brazil come from foreign companies.

More state control and processing in Brazil

• For: processing the minerals in Brazil adds value, creates skilled jobs and gives the country more weight in international negotiations. This is the stated goal of the new law.
• Against: the processing stage is expensive and technically difficult, and a state-owned company would require public investment and would face resistance, including within the government itself, according to eixos.

What now?

With Lula’s reelection, a few points deserve attention in the coming months:

1. The regulations implementing Law 15,506/2026 and the first decisions of the council it created.
2. The effects of the sale of Serra Verde, completed in September, and of other deals in the sector, such as the purchase of the Caldeira Project, in Minas Gerais (a state in southeastern Brazil), by the Australian company Lynas.
3. The negotiations with the United States and with other partners, which had stalled, according to CNN Brasil.
4. New projects, mainly in Minas Gerais and Goiás, and whether they will include processing stages in Brazil.

Rare earths are no longer just a mining topic. They are now also a matter of industrial policy and international relations. MineraMente will keep explaining each step, with data and without taking sides.